How hot does it get?
An early and intense heat wave in parts of India and Pakistan is news of the world. In New Delhi, the mercury rose to 43 degrees Celsius in March, the hottest month on record. But it’s not only India and Pakistan that are creaking in the heat, but Europe is also experiencing extreme temperatures this spring.
In Seville, Spain, the temperature today fluctuates around 31°C, in Zaragoza it is 33°C. By the end of this week, it should be getting much warmer. In Cordoba, the temperature will not fall below 43 degrees Celsius this weekend. In France, warm weather will continue this week with temperatures approaching 33 degrees Celsius in the area between Toulouse and Provence, Meteo France reports.
Where does the heat come from?
Over the past week, air has been brought in from the south and southwest, increasing temperatures in Europe. Over the next week, if southern supply continues, temperatures will rise further across most of Europe. Average daytime temperatures for this period are likely to be higher than normal. In France and Spain, it is already on average 10 degrees warmer than usual at this time of year.
What does summer expect?
It’s only mid-May, however Spain and France are already seeing extreme cases that usually only happen in the summer. What does that mean for the coming months? “According to the projections of the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts, the summer is likely to be drier and warmer than usual. The possibility of a summer that is cooler and wetter than usual is lower than usual,” said David Dehenau, VTM forecaster, affiliated with the Republic of the Marshall Islands.
“This statement is based on the fact that we currently have very dry soil. The drier the soil, the higher the temperature. When the sun shines, part of this heat is used to evaporate moisture in the soil and in plants, and then another part heats the air on contact with that soil” .
“If the EC had estimated that the chance of rain in June was enormous, we might not have been able to make that statement. But just to clarify: there is no guarantee that summer will be hot and dry,” says Dehenau.
How is the situation in other parts of the world?
Extreme weather events are also happening on the other side of the world. Eastern Australia has been suffering from severe flooding for weeks. “Climate change is not a footnote to the story of these floods. It is the story,” the Climate Council said in a statement about the recent floods. Although the floods can be explained in part by the La Niña weather system, global warming plays an important role in increasing the severity of these disasters.
What do experts predict for the future?
In the years leading up to 2027, Earth could have been 1.5°C warmer for at least one year than it was before the industrial age. The chance of this happening is 48%. In the past five years, there was a 10 percent chance that one of those years would hit an additional 1.5-degree limit.
“The temperature is currently 1.1 degrees higher than the 20th century, pre-industrial averages,” explains climate expert Jill Peters. “We know that one day we will cross a degree and a half with the entire planet and that we will not be able to stop it.”
What could the consequences be?
The IPCC – made up of 270 scientists from 67 countries – released a new climate report earlier this year, which vividly described the consequences of climate change. The warmer the Earth, the greater the pressure on food security, the higher the heat-related deaths, and the higher the deaths from tropical diseases such as dengue. Even if global warming was limited to 1.5 degrees, there would be innumerable “losses and damages” around the world.
“Many results indicate that the commission has a file ‘Very high confidence’‘Or he has a lot of faith that what he says will almost certainly happen. The trend is to have greater certainty. Peters replied earlier.
In addition to reducing our emissions, the IPCC recommends measures that can reduce risks. “We know more than ever how to tackle the crisis,” Peters says. “We understand the importance of ecosystems, and we know why biodiversity is important. We must now also use these clever ideas from science to find solutions. In flood zones, in the countryside, in cities. The green city. Arrange our commute, our dwelling, the places we work and relax,” he said. Peters “This report is a confirmation that such a thing is necessary.”
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