‘Biggest risks 2022’: Will there be another EU migrant crisis this year?

Also in 2022, there will be no shortage of migrants from the Middle East and Africa trying to reach European coasts. But the 2015 migrant crisis will not be repeated, write Ian Bremer and Cliff Kupchan of Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.And In Hun rapport “The Most Important Risks 2022”.

The duo wrote that migration remains a politically sensitive issue in the EU, but that there is no prospect of a new refugee crisis. The European Union has succeeded in reducing the number of illegal arrivals by about 90%. This compares to the peak in 2015 (see chart below). But even this is not enough for some member states. “Europe will act aggressively (and collectively) to keep illegal immigrants out and strengthen its ability to do so.”

What Trump couldn’t do, the European Union did

More and more walls are being built on the borders of the European Union. Because there is no incentive to open the door to large numbers of immigrants, as in 2015. Lithuania and Poland, two staunch opponents of the regime in Belarus, are building walls on their borders. Lithuania plans to build a 508-kilometre fencePoland also builds a fence. Then there is Greece 40 km long fence on its border with Turkey. This should prevent potential asylum seekers from trying to reach Europe after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. So what Trump promised at the time on the US southern border with Mexico, but never delivered, the European Union is doing quietly on its eastern border.

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Brussels will conclude agreements with transit countries. For example, it will seek to emulate the success of the 2016 EU-Turkey migration agreement. The EU’s response to recent migration pressures Example from Belarus. Europeans have involved countries in the Middle East and beyond. Sanctions were imposed and funding was made available to stem the arrival of migrants. Those detained outside their borders were repatriated.

Denmark model?

EU members on the front lines of internal migration will unilaterally tighten border security. In this way they will prevent and deter the arrival of immigrants, Expect Bremer and Chopkan. EU capitals either actively support or condone the crackdown. Even if they violated the rights of immigrants and violated international treaties. For example, in June it became known that Denmark pass the law This makes it possible to process asylum applications outside Europe. In a concrete sense, this means that the Scandinavian country will be able to transfer refugees who arrive on its territory to asylum centers in the so-called “partner countries”. Their case will be investigated there.

Bremer and Kupchan conclude that we will certainly see alarming headlines. But this new refugee crisis is out of the question, because immigration to the European Union remains a politically sensitive issue.


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