Elfstedentocht’s chance halved due to global warming – science

The chance of a very cold winter has almost halved since the beginning of the 20th century. The Netherlands Meteorological Institute has calculated this.

Because of climate change, the chance of “round trips” over natural Frisian ice will decrease further in the future. According to the institute, “how much depends on the increase in global warming.”

Exactly 25 years ago, the last Elfstedentocht festival was held on Tuesday. Although the climate is getting worse, according to KNMI, statistically speaking, it is assumed that the flight will still be possible once every twelve years.

At the beginning of the last century, conditions were still appropriate approximately once every five years. Experts only consider the cold that is at least necessary for a tour of eleven cities. As a rule, they assure that the temperature should be below -4.2 ° C over the course of 15 days in De Bilt.

In fact, there are more important factors. For example, the ice should be thick enough for the number of participants. It can also happen for local reasons that the ice is not strong everywhere. High winds and unfavorable snow.

According to KNMI, if global warming remains limited to two degrees, an average of eleven cities could be cycled around once every 20 years. Climate experts at the institute cautioned that “however, if we fail to limit global warming, there are only one or two more trips left before the chance becomes very slim by the middle of this century.”

According to experts, the fact that the Netherlands has been waiting for the next release for a quarter of a century is “bad luck”. “The chance of 25 years without proper Elfsteden weather is only 7 percent,” they wrote.

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Because of climate change, the chance of “round trips” over natural Frisian ice will decrease further in the future. According to the institute, “how much more depends on global warming,” it will be exactly 25 years before the Tuesday the last Elfstedentocht festival was held. Although the climate is getting worse, according to KNMI, statistically speaking, it is assumed that the flight will still be possible once every twelve years. At the beginning of the last century, conditions were still appropriate approximately once every five years. Experts only consider the cold that is at least necessary for a tour of eleven cities. As a rule, they assure that the temperature should be below -4.2 ° C over the course of 15 days in De Bilt. In fact, there are more important factors. For example, the ice should be thick enough for the number of participants. It can also happen for local reasons that the ice is not strong everywhere. High winds and unfavorable snow. According to KNMI, if global warming remains limited to two degrees, an average of eleven cities could be cycled around once every 20 years. Climate experts at the institute cautioned that “however, if we fail to limit global warming, there are only one or two more trips left before the chance becomes very slim by the middle of this century.” According to experts, the fact that the Netherlands has been waiting for the next release for a quarter of a century is “bad luck”. “The chance of 25 years without proper weather for eleven cities is only 7 percent,” they wrote.

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