Eurovision results are like tea leaves: everyone reads what they want to read

The Eurovision Song Contest is over. Unfortunately, Duncan Laurence and Gagnamagnið were unable to attend due to positive test results. The researchers at Fieldlab anxiously wanted to know who else was injured during the Eurovision Song Contest keep secret despite what they claim Search to lead. Just after sensation They promised to reveal these numbers anyway.

This song festival is not only a music festival, but also a statistical one. The results are like tea leaves: everyone reads in them what they want to read. Not only did the four worst performing nations participate in the semi-finals. Just letting you perform in the final feels like a to be defective – Until you realize that the two highest ranked nations only had to go to the final. Just as you don’t know the zero points for Great Britain The impact of Britain’s exit from the European Union We can mention: because three pro-EU countries (Germany, Spain and the Netherlands) also got zero points from the European peoples.

Right-wing politicians and opinion makers He saw Jeangu Macrooy’s poor score as evidence that Europe wasn’t interested in “wake-up songs” at all but that the Toppers, Cyniki, and even Joan Franca (a political disguise in improper Indian clothing) scored worse than Jingu. So Woke can’t explain this year’s disappointing result.

Half of the points are awarded by professional juries and the other half by television. The jury has very different preferences than the viewer’s. (Statistically: the correlation is only 0.60, and a score of 1 means that the preferences overlap exactly.) And while the members of the jury are in agreement, the preferences of the five Dutch lawyers overlap much more than those of the Dutch viewer. For example, Russia and Belgium reached the top five in the jury, but did not even reach the top ten in the Dutch voting.

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Winner of Eurovision 2021 – MÃ¥neskin from ItalyBrunopress’s photo

The end result is a synthetic blend of two completely different classifications. Either you think the people should have the say and then you vote on the TV; Either you think people are not fit for that and then you give the juries a chance. But finding unfit people is an inexplicable compromise.

The announcement of the results was also special. It is already known that there are a total of 4,524 points distributed (39 countries, 2 x 58 points per country). Just before the end, only France and Switzerland had to get their points. There are still 416 points available for both countries combined, and France’s result was announced first. Once it turned out that France got 251, it was also clear that Switzerland got 165. However, Jan Smit kept the viewer in suspense for at least 164 seconds (I counted) before the winner could be “announced”.

Tip for next year: Keep a calculator handy, so you can sleep three minutes earlier.

Kasper Albers is Professor of Statistics at the University of Groningen

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