Every heat wave today is more extreme because of climate change – new scientist

According to scientists, it is no longer important to use models to determine whether heat waves have become more extreme due to climate change. Today, they say climate change plays a role in all heat waves.

Any current heat wave is more likely due to climate change. So there is no need to use studies to unravel its role in individual extreme heat periods, says a scientist who pioneered such ‘trait studies’.

Extreme weather conditions

Researchers generally attribute specific extreme weather events to climate change. Last week’s heat waves in China and Japan are not usually linked to climate change until “attribute studies” are conducted. These are studies that compare how likely heat waves are in a world with a changed climate compared to the probability in a world without climate change.

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Such studies are led by climate scientists Friedrich Otto From Imperial College London, it has evolved over the past ten years and can now be performed in a matter of days. But, Otto says, when it comes to heat waves, we don’t have to wait any longer. “I think we can now confidently say that any heat wave that happens now has become more intense and more likely because of climate change,” he says. There is no doubt that climate change is an absolute A game changer When heat waves come.’

Current status

However, changes in land use may still affect the correct probability. Partly for this reason, Otto says more studies will be needed to determine how much more likely and intense heat waves have become due to climate change. “We shouldn’t stop with attribute studies,” he says. But while those studies have been conducted by many NGOs, the status quo World Weather Attribution Project Being a part of Otto is “definitely not sustainable,” he adds.

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National weather agencies, such as the UK’s Met Office, should do more research to understand the impacts of climate change, Otto and his colleagues said in a statement. A review published last week on attribution studies

Peter Stott, head of climate attribution at the Met Office, says such work is already being done at the agency. “We’ve been investigating climate properties at the Met Office for over two decades and we’re already able to quickly predict some extreme events. Peer reviewed method.’

Luke Harrington from the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, who worked with Otto on the study, says heat waves are a type of extreme weather event that is changing very quickly as a result of climate change. “Compared to the change in the frequency of other types of extreme weather, you see an increase in the frequency of extreme heat waves with each additional degree of global warming.”

Droughts, forest fires and heavy rains

In comparison, most of the world’s severe droughts are not caused by climate change, the report says. Except for the connection between climate change and the increasingly common wildfires in the western United States, most wildfires have. But as climate change has increased rainfall in most parts of the world, risk has not decreased anywhere in the world.

Heat waves linked to climate change could kill 157,000 people worldwide between 2000 and 2020. 80 percent of those who died during the European heat wave of 2003 or the Russian heat wave of 2010. Harrington says this number is almost certainly an underestimate because heat waves are not monitored in many parts of the world, and there is often no definition of heat. wave

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Of the total heat deaths, Asia, Africa, South and Central America, and the Caribbean account for only 6.3 percent of deaths, although nearly 85 percent of the world’s population lives in these regions.

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