Summary of Article Govt Daily Statistics December 28, 2021
On this page, the latest statistics on the Govt-19 epidemic, based on NICE data, are provided daily with forecasts for the coming weeks. Figures for today December 28, 2021.
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Study time: 4 Minutes
The eye of the storm (in a cup of tea?)
We have now come to the eye of the storm: the delta figures have dropped significantly and the Omigron wave is beginning to swell under the skin. If we look at the number of positive tests we can expect, it will mainly emerge at a big peak. Our expectations are based on Gauteng’s statistics, which we update almost daily.
The number of true infections would theoretically reach half a million at the top of the PCR curve, but that number would never be seen. In the first place, because only a small fraction of victims are always tested. That stake in Omikron will be significantly smaller as fewer people will receive complaints. The first conservative estimate is that it could be 35,000.
But a few weeks ago, before the Lockdown was announced to us, from statistics from South Africa, the burden of disease was very low, just 10 factor.
The media has been reporting for days that Omigran may dominate the new year. Prior to yesterday, it was reported that the stock may now be 75%. We will help everyone get rid of the dream, 79% share in our models yesterday, so we only smile from the 75% report of RIVM: still in the middle of the bull! The fact that it is not yet noticed in hospitals may be due to the fact that Omikron is mainly spread among younger groups. However, if the positive tests start to rise sharply, it should be attributed to the elderly as well, and it becomes clear to what extent it leads to less serious illness. (The danger is, As Maurice explained today, The increase in hospitals will come mainly from those admitted with Govt-19. In such a case, it should be clear from the IC records that Omigron significantly reduces the risk of disease).
According to preliminary calculations, the number of Omikron patients will prevail in the first week of January. Whether there will be an increase in the total number of records will be exciting for a while. The preliminary forecast is that we are actually going to see that increase, but we are not sure.
But we are far from achieving the RIVM’s forecast of 5,000 patients coming to the ICU. Now it is declining to 535 and more. Only if Omigron was sicker than we now think, based on the first signs from Europe, would the number of those IC combinations be higher than the highest point a month ago (675). So the storm may be in a cup of tea.
The diagram shown by Van Diesel to demonstrate the need for a lockdown suggests a 60% reduction in the number of IC beds compared to the conditions in a mild lockdown.
We do not see any possible lag in our maps as a result. Now it will be said “Without this lock …..“But if you put the Belgian figures next to it, there’s no difference. Without locking in there, the Belgian figures cut even a fraction faster, so eliminating the lockdown action is not expected to lead to visible differences.
According to Van Diesel, slowing down the infection not only reduces the risk of infection (i.e. less hospitalization), but also puts an end to the infection sooner, making less people immune. Reducing infection is long lasting and the picture of RIVM shows the opposite. Explaining this lesson is a strange thought.
A lot has been written, nothing to show yet. Here are the maps, which are the pinnacle of dullness as expected. The only tension is when the curls are visible upwards. We did not find any of the enrollment statistics:
However, PCR now seems to have reached the abyss almost as predicted. The figures for yesterday’s heels are not yet known. We were not going to wait for them, they were not complete due to system crashes, and Christmas led to fewer trials.
The graph for R-value shows a lot of interesting details. What is more significant is that when calculated based on the PCR value, it seems to follow the forecast very closely, perhaps with a time delay. On the other hand, the R-value based on the number of shots has an advantage. There can be all sorts of explanations for this. We will only adjust the forecast once we have a better idea of the variables that cause this. The short incubation time of omigran plays a role, but also the load values of the disease.
In addition, we also see the R-value from Belgium. On the day the lockout began in the Netherlands, we see Belgian figures falling further, while those in the Netherlands rose for a while. It’s not that big, but RIVM’s expectation that it’s a big blow to the epidemic should have given a completely different picture: the R – value has halved in the last few days.
Daily hospital admission statistics:
- Number of people admitted to hospital yesterday 191 *
- Number of hospital admissions the day before yesterday: 116 *
- Current Estimated R-Value of Hospital Admissions: 0.87 **
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