The conflict will begin with an independent referendum.

Scotland participates in the protest for Scottish independence, in Stirling, August 19, 2020. – Makoto Heroes / AB / Ciba

  • After winning the parliamentary election, Scottish separatists plan to hold a new referendum on the country’s independence.
  • A “yes” victory for Boris Johnson, who strongly opposes the vote, could have serious electoral consequences.
  • While this victory is not guaranteed, separatists could violate the British embargo by arranging a referendum, mainly due to the uncertainty surrounding Scotland’s accession to the European Union.

The coming months promise exciting discussions about the Guild. Separatist victory Scott put the parliamentary election on the table last Thursday
A new referendum issue For the independence of the nation after the defeat of the last seven years. A plan put forward by SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Prime Minister, but was completely rejected by Boris Johnson. Florence Fatcher, professor of science and the UK expert, decodes 20 minutesIssues and features of this new possible referendum.

What is happening now that the Scottish National Party has won the election?

The Scottish National Party said before the election that it would be difficult for the prime minister to refuse to hold a referendum if they had an absolute majority in the Scottish parliament. Only one government United Kingdom He may grant permission for such an event. The precedent was narrowly lost in 2014 and one of the union’s arguments was membership of the European Union. The situation changed when Scotland voted against Brexit. A dangerous second vote for the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson said it was only possible once in a generation and refused to arrange it. Expect a confrontation between Boris Johnson and Scottish Prime Minister Nicholas Sturgeon.

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We do not organize an independent referendum every four days, otherwise we continue to live in a state of instability and disrepute of companies. For the Scottish separatists from the SNP, victory in the Scottish Parliament was important, but they did not get an absolute majority. However, they asserted their dominance. They need to prove that a concept movement is huge and not yet.

From his side, Boris Johnson He will do anything to avoid such a referendum as he has little interest in leading the disintegration of the United Kingdom. Prime Minister of a party still known as the Conservative and Unionist Party. The union with Scotland is old and solid. His party and the electorate will not forgive him. With the success of the vaccine and the results of local elections in the UK he can quietly wait for the next general election in three and a half years.

Can Scottish separatists hold a referendum?

Even if the UK does not recognize it, there may be some kind of vote. One of the options for thisScotland Organizing a consultative referendum would not really be constitutional. Scotland has no right to hold elections like the one in 2014 without the approval of the Prime Minister. But freed from the constraints of national law, a simple consultation could be arranged much faster than a referendum held seven years ago.

If it is a referendum organized without the consent of the UK, the Prime Minister cannot guarantee it through the election campaign. This is not to say that the Tories will not mobilize and that the Scottish Conservatives will certainly be very active, but their argument should at least maintain that their organization is illegal.

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The real question is: what interest does the SNP have in organizing such a referendum quickly? Because this vote will help show that Scotland wants independence, but precautions will be taken to ensure it wins. The fluctuations of Scottish public opinion will be closely examined.

Why is the poll result uncertain even if SNP wins?

Although Brixi What the Scots were playing against was a “yes” that they had to leave the UK and negotiate a merger with the European Union. Since they will not stay in the wallet their financial position will depend on what share of the UK government debt is to be taken. Scottish voters may regret leaving the EU, but leaving the UK has a symbolic and economic impact. These are the same results that France lost to Brittany. Scotland, with a population of 5-6 million, is the second of the four countries that make up the United Kingdom, and the monarchy is closely related to Scotland and Queen Scotland.

Despite nearly three centuries of partnership, a border negotiation with the UK on tariffs is yet to take place. Although activists have longed for Scottish independence, there is a lot of reluctance. It was these reluctances that led Scotland to vote against independence in 2014. To mark the balance, the EU should note that it would be easier to reunite Scotland in the European Union. Otherwise, in light of the director’s complexity, the current situation is likely to win.

Finally, even if the UK agrees to hold this referendum, many rules and conditions will still apply. The big mistake made by Brexit was not setting the minimum participation threshold or the qualifying majority requirement (above 50%). This is unlikely to happen again. A qualified majority, e.g. 65%, and a minimum voter turnout may be required.

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