The U.S. Department of Agriculture USDA estimates lower theoretical ending stocks than July with the latest figures on global wheat balances for the 2022-2023 season.
This is evident from estimates of world agricultural supply and demand (Wasde) report From August. USDA lowers theoretical closing inventory to 267.3 million tons from 267.5 million tons. According to US analysts, this is the lowest level in six years.
USDA puts world production at a record 779.6 million tons. This is due to large harvests in Russia, Australia and China. Russian production rose by 6.5 million tonnes to a record 88 million tonnes, driven by increased harvests of both winter and spring wheat.
Australia production increased
Production in Australia increased by 3 million tonnes to 33 million tonnes. This is due to increasingly favorable weather, which points to a higher yield outlook. China’s production increased by 3 million tonnes to 138 million tonnes.
These increases are partially offset by cuts to India and the European Union (EU). Indian production declined by 3 million tonnes to 103 million tonnes. An important reason is a small harvest area. EU production fell by 2 million tonnes to 132.1 million tonnes. This was mainly due to lower revenues in Hungary, Spain and Romania.
The highest consumption is Russia and Australia
USDA expects world consumption to increase by 4.4 million tonnes to 788.6 million tonnes in the 2022-2023 season due to higher consumption by Russia and Australia. World trade is projected to increase by 3.2 million tonnes to 208.6 million tonnes in 2022-2023, driven by higher exports from Russia, Australia, Ukraine, Canada and the United States. According to the USDA, these countries offset lower exports from the European Union and Argentina.
Exports from Russia are heading towards a record 42 million tonnes due to an increase in exportable stocks and expectations that export prices will remain competitive.
This week, Matif in Paris was trading around €325 a tonne for September milling wheat. This is 100 euros less than a few months ago. Prices for wheat from the 2023 harvest are below €300 per tonne.
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