USDA Raises Wheat Stocks

In new calculations of the global wheat balance for the 2022-2023 season, the USDA Department of Agriculture has slightly overestimated theoretical closing stocks.

The adjustment is the result of a lower harvest forecast, but that is offset by lower consumption figures for global wheat. This is evident from estimates of world agricultural supply and demand (Wasde) report From July. The theoretical closing stock was revised to 267.5 million tonnes from 266.8 million. The opening stock of wheat on July 1, 2022 is calculated at 280.1 million tonnes.

USDA considers low wheat production for the European Union (EU), Ukraine and Argentina. The adjustment for the EU from 136.1 million to 134.1 million tonnes is based on drier growing conditions in Spain, Italy and Germany. The harvest for Ukraine is estimated to be down 2 million tonnes to 19.5 million tonnes. This is due to the fact that the final harvested area will turn out to be smaller than previously announced by the Ukrainian authorities.

Big harvest in Canada and USA

These lower production forecasts are partially offset by upwardly adjusted revenue figures for Canada, the United States and Russia. USDA is now calculating the best hectare yields for both Canada and the United States for a large wheat region. Russia is on track to harvest 81.5 million tons of wheat, 5 million tons more than the 2021 harvest year.

Due to lower yields, USDA now estimates that exports to the European Union and Argentina will also be somewhat lower. On the other hand, there are more exports from Canada and the United States. USDA’s new forecast shows total world wheat consumption down 1.8 million tons. The main reason for this decline is that less and less wheat is used for animal feed worldwide.

See also  Bennett will not fill Domoulin's vacancy in the Tour de France

With global production at 771.6 million tonnes and wheat consumption at 784.2 million tonnes, the theoretical ending stock on July 1, 2023 will be 267.5 million tonnes. That’s 0.7 million tons more than the June Wasde report forecast, but still the lowest amount since the 2016-2017 season, according to the USDA.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.